Irish voters likely to sink EU treaty, poll shows

The Guardian + Henk Ruyssenaars

IRISH VOTERS LIKELY TO SINK EU TREATY, POLL SHOWS

June 8th, 2008 - Intro: If you could read this first, you'll understand why the 490 million people in the socalled European Union (another profit unit) have to be saved by the Irish vote. The people of the Republic Of Ireland will be the only 'citizens' of the European Union given the opportunity to have their say on what is potentially the most fundamental piece of legislation in the history of the 'Old Continent' - Schavot - Url.: http://schavot.blogspot.com/2008/06/12-juni-aanstaande-d-day.html

"THE REFERENDUM IS HEADING FOR DEFEAT," SAID AN EDITORIAL IN THE PRO-EU IRISH TIMES

THE GUARDIAN (UK) - BY IAN TRAYNOR IN BRUSSELS 

Saturday June 7, 2008 - The European Union is bracing itself for a fresh bout of doom and gloom as the Irish look increasingly likely to reject the new Lisbon treaty, wrecking years of efforts to reshape the way the community is run.

The latest opinion poll shows those intending to vote against the EU's reform treaty doubling in strength in recent weeks, soaring to a five-point lead over the Yes camp.

A vote against the treaty would sink the ambitions of Berlin, Brussels and Paris to reshape the EU by giving it a sitting president, foreign minister, a diplomatic service, a new voting system and decision-making powers, and streamlining the European commission.

After previous negative referendum results in Ireland, France, and the Netherlands over the past seven years, an Irish rejection would also be hailed - at least by Eurosceptics - as a massive vote of no confidence on the way the EU is run.

Ireland's governing and main opposition parties, all strongly in favour of the treaty, were panicking yesterday, despite the news earlier in the week that Ireland's farmers would finally back the treaty.

An Irish Times poll showed the treaty opponents have made meteoric gains, doubling from 17 to 35% in recent weeks, while the treaty's supporters slumped from 35 to 30%. With just five days to go before the only popular vote on the treaty in a union of 27 countries, the Yes camp faces an uphill struggle to reverse the momentum for ditching the treaty.

"THE REFERENDUM IS HEADING FOR DEFEAT," SAID AN EDITORIAL IN THE PRO-EU IRISH TIMES. 

"There is a dramatic shift in public opinion towards a No vote ... The government and its allies may find it impossible to turn the tide. The Lisbon treaty may not be passed."

Treaty opponents believe loopholes will mean Ireland loses control in areas such as tax, trade, abortion and military neutrality. Pro-treaty parties have accused them of scaremongering.

As an amending treaty, augmenting and revising previous European treaties, the document is an indigestible compendium of articles, legalisms, and protocols. It matters. But it is not an easy read. This factor is contributing hugely to the No campaign's success in turning the Irish against the new dispensation.

Analysis of Friday's poll results showed that confusion was the key to turning voters against the treaty. Many voters said they were voting no because they could not understand the treaty.

The Lisbon treaty, masterminded last year by Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and signed by EU leaders in December, is the response to the failed attempt to craft a constitution for Europe, a campaign wrecked by French and Dutch No votes in 2005.

The new treaty retains most of the institutional innovations mooted in the draft constitution, but is stripped of the symbolism of constitutionality.

In Brussels, Irish officials are worried the vote will be lost. Dick Roche, the Europe minister, has warned friends his government is in trouble. "He felt it could go badly. He's worried about losing," said a source who spoke to Roche this week.

The referendum campaign contributed to the resignation of the Irish prime minister, Bertie Ahern, last month. A No vote could bring down his replacement, Brian Cowen, who said on Friday that he would take responsibility for the result.

Ireland, uniquely in the European Union, is constitutionally bound to stage referendums on EU treaties, meaning that less than 1% of the EU's population of more than 450 million has the power to determine the fate of European treaties.


[andend]

This article appeared in the Guardian on Saturday, June 07, 2008 - on p24 of the International section. It was last updated at 01:04 on June 07 2008. - Url.: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jun/07/eu.ireland

RELATED:

* FRENCH PRESIDENT AND GAULEITER SARKOZY'S (A.K.A. TZARKOZY) CONNECTIONS TO THE ISRAELI MOSSAD WARMONGERS - Google: Results 1 - 10 of about 321,000 for Sarkozy +Mossad - TinyUrl.: http://tinyurl.com/6f4gfc

* EUROPEAN HQ HEADS SARKOZY PLAN FOR GREATER MILITARY INTEGRATION - Url.: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jun/07/eu.france

* HR (GOOGLE) AND THE EUROPEAN UNION - TinyUrl.: http://tinyurl.com/6bkny7

* FPF-COPYRIGHT NOTICE - In accordance with Title 17 U. S. C. Section 107 - any copyrighted work in this message is distributed by the Foreign Press Foundation under fair use, without profit or payment, to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the information. Url.: http://tinyurl.com/3z3r6

FOREIGN PRESS FOUNDATION
Editor: Henk Ruyssenaars
http://tinyurl.com/2wegpc
The Netherlands
fpf@chello.nl

-0-